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The Greenies ain’t going to be happy😁. Look at the EV movement😂

ChargerChallenger

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#1
Shocking Assumptions Regarding EVs
For many, electric vehicles—including electric motorcycles—are the wave of the future. But how long before that wave reaches our shoreline? I recently listened to a podcast by Nick Colas, an analyst and a founder of DataTrek Research, a firm which provides investment information. The subject was simple numerical analysis of three possible scenarios concerning the adoption of EVs in the US between now and 2030.
Colas notes that there are 250 million cars and light trucks registered in the United States today, and that each year roughly 6 percent of them, or 15 million, are replaced by new models. That rather gradual rate of replacement has, he said, resulted in the average US auto or light truck being 12 years old.

So here are his three scenarios: First, let’s imagine that by 2030 a whopping 70 percent of all-new vehicles sold here will be EVs. Right now they’re about 2 percent of sales per year. If that increases linearly from the present level to the assumed 70 percent in our time span, then by 2030 just 20 percent of the total US vehicle fleet will be electrics. (These numbers concern themselves with plug-in electrics only—no hybrids.)
Second scenario: If we change the assumption, imagining that by 2030 “only” 50 percent of new vehicles sold will be EVs, then by 2030 just 17 percent of the US vehicle fleet will be EVs.
The third scenario: If by 2030 EV sales make up 30 percent of all cars and light trucks sold in the US, then by 2030 just over 8 percent of the US vehicle fleet will be EVs.
These figures surprised me, but there’s a good reason for that: the slow rate of 6 percent a year at which vehicles are replaced. And there’s no reason to believe that will change soon.
 

coolblue

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#2
Shocking Assumptions Regarding EVs
For many, electric vehicles—including electric motorcycles—are the wave of the future. But how long before that wave reaches our shoreline? I recently listened to a podcast by Nick Colas, an analyst and a founder of DataTrek Research, a firm which provides investment information. The subject was simple numerical analysis of three possible scenarios concerning the adoption of EVs in the US between now and 2030.
Colas notes that there are 250 million cars and light trucks registered in the United States today, and that each year roughly 6 percent of them, or 15 million, are replaced by new models. That rather gradual rate of replacement has, he said, resulted in the average US auto or light truck being 12 years old.

So here are his three scenarios: First, let’s imagine that by 2030 a whopping 70 percent of all-new vehicles sold here will be EVs. Right now they’re about 2 percent of sales per year. If that increases linearly from the present level to the assumed 70 percent in our time span, then by 2030 just 20 percent of the total US vehicle fleet will be electrics. (These numbers concern themselves with plug-in electrics only—no hybrids.)
Second scenario: If we change the assumption, imagining that by 2030 “only” 50 percent of new vehicles sold will be EVs, then by 2030 just 17 percent of the US vehicle fleet will be EVs.
The third scenario: If by 2030 EV sales make up 30 percent of all cars and light trucks sold in the US, then by 2030 just over 8 percent of the US vehicle fleet will be EVs.
These figures surprised me, but there’s a good reason for that: the slow rate of 6 percent a year at which vehicles are replaced. And there’s no reason to believe that will change soon.
VERY interesting stats and viewpoint. Thanks for posting! This is all logical, and linear....assuming the status quo, and nothing changes.
But, but, and it's a big 'ol BUT......if they make changes....... if they make gas/oil unaffordable for the average man, if you get DMV penalties for an environmentally unfriendly car (already have gas guzzler tax on new cars now), if they give incentives to go electric, if it becomes more convenient to access/charge vehicles(infrastructure), if insurance goes up for ICE vehicles for whatever reasons they deem, if they invent an "unnecessary noise tax", if public opinion changes so much people are throwing rocks at you as you drive-by and are verbally abusing you at stop lights 'cause your an inconsiderate planet killer, then the 6% replacement rate and 12yr average age of vehicles all changes, dramatically.
 

vortecd

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#3
Could be interesting on how hard they are going to push where most may not have a choice but to go electric:(
 

coolblue

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#4
Could be interesting on how hard they are going to push where most may not have a choice but to go electric:(
Pipeline closed 1st day in office. Oil's already over $70 a barrel. So many reversals, so quick, on everything done the previous 4yrs it'll make your head spin. They're making up for lost time. They're pushing hard.
 

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#5
No E.V. for me until they can get at least a 600-700 mile range and full recharge in less than 10 mins. Can’t deal with trip anxiety :ROFLMAO: Oh yeah, and affordable with no incentives to get prices lower on the backs of tax payers. Wonder what the “gas miser” tax will be with no one paying fuel taxes.
 

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#6
I see it widening the blue/red schism that is rapidly emerging in this country. The dense pop centers (i.e. big cities) will push hard for it and it will be easier to build the charging infrastructure there + EV's make more sense in a city setting. Out in the burbs/country, infrastructure will be less accessible and due to the nature of there being longer travel times, adoption will be slower.

Depending on how overbearing the punishment fines/taxes/gas prices and social stigmas become, ppl may say f*** it and just keep their old cars longer.

The massive lost tax base (local, state & fed) from dwindling gas sales will be re-couped by charging 'road use' taxes based on miles driven, when & where you drive. This is already in place and happening (for ICE & EV's) in the UK & EU. Like they did, it will happen here 1st in the big metro areas and slowly push out to the 'burbs. I'd bet CC's fleet (easy to spend OPM) it will start here in the next 2 years. West coast (LA, SF, then Portland etc.) will go 1st, followed by DC, NY, Chi, PA and cascade inland from there. Next step will be automatic fines for exceeding the speed limit or driving 'aggressively' and even having your ability to recharge (even @ home) 'suspended' if they don't like you or how you drive.
 

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#7
This administration and the ones following it. if it stays in the current party, Will not offer us a choice! go electric or walk.. I'm still wanting to see the Boeing 747 EV take flight! And the electric freighter go across the ocean to China and back bringing our goods we consume. As I have said in the past. they are getting the cart in front of the ass. All battery electric is not the answer in the first place. We don't have the capacity to provide the electricity to every thing that would need it. Provide electric to who wants them, That will lower fosel fuel use in California, and our carbon footprint that they are so concerned about. As they cut down the forest in Maine. Dumb shits. They don't have a clue.
 

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#8
No E.V. for me until they can get at least a 600-700 mile range and full recharge in less than 10 mins. Can’t deal with trip anxiety :ROFLMAO: Oh yeah, and affordable with no incentives to get prices lower on the backs of tax payers. Wonder what the “gas miser” tax will be with no one paying fuel taxes.
I have terrible range anxiety...I get worried if my iphone goes below 80%. But on the other hand, I'll take the needle below E in an ICE engine if I have to.
 

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#9
This administration and the ones following it. if it stays in the current party, Will not offer us a choice! go electric or walk.. I'm still wanting to see the Boeing 747 EV take flight! And the electric freighter go across the ocean to China and back bringing our goods we consume. As I have said in the past. they are getting the cart in front of the ass. All battery electric is not the answer in the first place. We don't have the capacity to provide the electricity to every thing that would need it. Provide electric to who wants them, That will lower fosel fuel use in California, and our carbon footprint that they are so concerned about. As they cut down the forest in Maine. Dumb shits. They don't have a clue.
Just this past week because the wind is dead still (those wind mills just don't turn on calm days) and the temps are near 100 here in MN we have had power failures. It has dimmed and/or completely shut off two of the past three days now. Our generator at work was on Wednesday for hours and when I departed the office.
 

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#10
They can "WANT" us to go EV all day and night. The fact of the matter is that the grid cannot support the load if it happened. Like @stonewall said above, their jackass is in the ditch and he ain't getting out soon...
 

stonewall

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#11
They can "WANT" us to go EV all day and night. The fact of the matter is that the grid cannot support the load if it happened. Like @stonewall said above, their jackass is in the ditch and he ain't getting out soon...
The big problem is. You have a senile bastard signing the papers and retards writing them! They don't care what we want!
 
OP
ChargerChallenger

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Thread Starter #12
The big problem is. You have a senile bastard China Spy signing the papers and Libtards writing them! They don't care what we want!
 

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#13
VERY interesting stats and viewpoint. Thanks for posting! This is all logical, and linear....assuming the status quo, and nothing changes.
But, but, and it's a big 'ol BUT......if they make changes....... if they make gas/oil unaffordable for the average man, if you get DMV penalties for an environmentally unfriendly car (already have gas guzzler tax on new cars now), if they give incentives to go electric, if it becomes more convenient to access/charge vehicles(infrastructure), if insurance goes up for ICE vehicles for whatever reasons they deem, if they invent an "unnecessary noise tax", if public opinion changes so much people are throwing rocks at you as you drive-by and are verbally abusing you at stop lights 'cause your an inconsiderate planet killer, then the 6% replacement rate and 12yr average age of vehicles all changes, dramatically.
They can't just cut off the working people and poor.
COVID just did that last spring and businesses were pleading with workers to get back in there and make them more money.

You make travel too expensive, these same businesses will be without workers. And politicians will be out of their jobs.

This change will be very slow and I will likely be retired by the time EVs fully take over
 

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